Your board just posted a delay. This page answers with measured history: of the flights that were in the same state as yours, how many were eventually cancelled. Built from 3,938,684 resolved departures on 326 tracked airport boards.
Data 2026-06-29 to 2026-09-04 · rebuilt 2026-09-06 15:15 UTC · publishes at n = 100 resolved flights per cell
The departure board shows
Your flight will almost certainly still depart. Of 144,000 tracked flights whose board showed 40 to 70 min, 1,309 were cancelled and 99.1% went on to fly.
Cohort · tracked flights · 40 to 70 min displayed
Pick your airport to use its own measured cell once it has 100 or more resolved flights. Thin cohorts fall back to the overall curve and say so here.
This airport's own delay curve. Direct cells only. Thin buckets stay unpublished here rather than borrowing the overall rate.
The delay curve
What the posted delay really says
The surprise in the data: a modest posted delay is good news. Flights showing 20 to 40 minutes cancel at 0.5%, well under the 1.7% network baseline, because most cancellations hit the board with no long delay first. The odds only pass the baseline once the board shows 70 or more minutes, at 2.3%.
Each flight counts once per state it displayed. Tap a row to load it into the read-out.
Counterintuitive finding
The departure time moved again. The odds barely moved.
Travelers read a second or third new departure time as doom. The measured curve is nearly flat: one push and four pushes carry almost the same cancellation rate, 0.5% against 0.9%. Watch the minutes on the board rather than the number of times it changes.
Where a long delay turns dangerous
Airports with the highest cancellation rate at 70+ minutes
Once a board shows 70 or more minutes, geography matters more than anything else we track. The network average in that state is 2.3%. These airports run far above it. The gray whisker is the 95% confidence interval.
123 of 326 tracked airports have a published 70+ minute cell (n ≥ 100). The list is descriptive, built from resolved flights only, and it is never an airport quality score.
The airline lens
Same 70+ minute delay, very different airlines
Pooled across all tracked airports, 120 airlines have a published 70+ minute cell. The spread is wide: some carriers cancel one heavily delayed flight in twelve, others pushed through every single one in the sample.
Most likely to cancel70+ min state
Flew them all anyway70+ min state
Airline cells pool every tracked airport an airline departs from, so network mix drives part of the difference. Select your airline in the calculator to read its exact cell with n and interval.
Time of day
When you fly barely matters
The 70+ minute cancellation rate is nearly flat across the day. Overnight departures run slightly worse on a much thinner sample.
Every published cell by time of day and airline
| Scheduled departure | 20 to 40 min | 40 to 70 min | 70+ min | 1+ push | 2+ pushes | 3+ pushes | 4+ pushes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 to 05:59 | 1.0%n=2,611 · 95% CI 0.7 to 1.5% | 1.7%n=1,874 · 95% CI 1.2 to 2.4% | 2.1%n=3,036 · 95% CI 1.7 to 2.7% | 0.7%n=17,725 · 95% CI 0.6 to 0.8% | 1.4%n=2,948 · 95% CI 1.0 to 1.9% | 2.4%n=915 · 95% CI 1.6 to 3.6% | 1.3%n=300 · 95% CI 0.5 to 3.4% |
| 06:00 to 11:59 | 0.3%n=44,299 · 95% CI 0.3 to 0.4% | 0.8%n=25,246 · 95% CI 0.7 to 0.9% | 2.1%n=21,789 · 95% CI 1.9 to 2.3% | 0.3%n=245,981 · 95% CI 0.3 to 0.4% | 0.6%n=55,707 · 95% CI 0.5 to 0.6% | 0.6%n=20,050 · 95% CI 0.5 to 0.7% | 0.6%n=8,701 · 95% CI 0.5 to 0.8% |
| 12:00 to 17:59 | 0.4%n=98,283 · 95% CI 0.4 to 0.4% | 0.8%n=59,883 · 95% CI 0.8 to 0.9% | 2.2%n=44,070 · 95% CI 2.1 to 2.3% | 0.5%n=316,100 · 95% CI 0.5 to 0.5% | 0.6%n=116,112 · 95% CI 0.6 to 0.7% | 0.8%n=53,798 · 95% CI 0.7 to 0.9% | 0.9%n=27,369 · 95% CI 0.8 to 1.1% |
| 18:00 to 23:59 | 0.6%n=78,378 · 95% CI 0.6 to 0.7% | 1.0%n=56,997 · 95% CI 1.0 to 1.1% | 2.6%n=46,940 · 95% CI 2.4 to 2.7% | 0.8%n=241,532 · 95% CI 0.7 to 0.8% | 0.9%n=106,194 · 95% CI 0.8 to 0.9% | 0.9%n=60,555 · 95% CI 0.8 to 1.0% | 0.9%n=34,530 · 95% CI 0.8 to 1.0% |
| Airline | 20 to 40 min | 40 to 70 min | 70+ min | 1+ push | 2+ pushes | 3+ pushes | 4+ pushes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American | 0.6%n=20,822 · 95% CI 0.5 to 0.7% | 0.8%n=16,528 · 95% CI 0.7 to 1.0% | 1.7%n=15,815 · 95% CI 1.5 to 1.9% | 0.7%n=65,415 · 95% CI 0.6 to 0.7% | 0.8%n=27,580 · 95% CI 0.7 to 0.9% | 1.0%n=12,273 · 95% CI 0.9 to 1.2% | 1.3%n=5,264 · 95% CI 1.0 to 1.6% |
| Iberia | 0.3%n=12,926 · 95% CI 0.2 to 0.4% | 0.6%n=6,233 · 95% CI 0.5 to 0.9% | 2.3%n=3,647 · 95% CI 1.9 to 2.8% | 0.2%n=58,823 · 95% CI 0.2 to 0.3% | 0.3%n=22,878 · 95% CI 0.3 to 0.4% | 0.5%n=10,282 · 95% CI 0.4 to 0.6% | 0.6%n=5,015 · 95% CI 0.4 to 0.9% |
| Ryanair | 0.1%n=15,499 · 95% CI 0.1 to 0.2% | 0.2%n=11,329 · 95% CI 0.1 to 0.3% | 0.7%n=8,609 · 95% CI 0.6 to 0.9% | 0.1%n=54,560 · 95% CI 0.1 to 0.2% | 0.2%n=23,136 · 95% CI 0.1 to 0.2% | 0.2%n=13,047 · 95% CI 0.1 to 0.3% | 0.3%n=7,101 · 95% CI 0.2 to 0.4% |
| Southwest | 0.3%n=15,042 · 95% CI 0.2 to 0.4% | 0.6%n=9,904 · 95% CI 0.5 to 0.8% | 1.3%n=7,339 · 95% CI 1.1 to 1.6% | 0.4%n=44,345 · 95% CI 0.3 to 0.4% | 0.5%n=20,769 · 95% CI 0.4 to 0.6% | 0.6%n=15,588 · 95% CI 0.5 to 0.7% | 0.5%n=11,814 · 95% CI 0.4 to 0.7% |
| Vueling | 0.3%n=9,276 · 95% CI 0.2 to 0.4% | 0.7%n=4,568 · 95% CI 0.5 to 1.0% | 2.8%n=2,714 · 95% CI 2.2 to 3.5% | 0.2%n=44,244 · 95% CI 0.2 to 0.3% | 0.4%n=15,707 · 95% CI 0.3 to 0.5% | 0.6%n=7,325 · 95% CI 0.4 to 0.8% | 0.8%n=3,415 · 95% CI 0.6 to 1.2% |
| Delta Air Lines | 0.8%n=7,632 · 95% CI 0.6 to 1.0% | 1.1%n=6,218 · 95% CI 0.8 to 1.4% | 2.2%n=7,199 · 95% CI 1.9 to 2.6% | 0.6%n=41,941 · 95% CI 0.5 to 0.7% | 1.6%n=7,681 · 95% CI 1.4 to 1.9% | 1.9%n=3,347 · 95% CI 1.5 to 2.5% | 2.0%n=1,432 · 95% CI 1.4 to 2.9% |
| United | 0.6%n=8,264 · 95% CI 0.4 to 0.8% | 1.2%n=6,914 · 95% CI 1.0 to 1.5% | 3.2%n=8,302 · 95% CI 2.9 to 3.6% | 0.9%n=39,344 · 95% CI 0.8 to 1.0% | 1.9%n=9,419 · 95% CI 1.6 to 2.2% | 2.6%n=3,879 · 95% CI 2.2 to 3.2% | 3.8%n=1,563 · 95% CI 3.0 to 4.9% |
| Qatar Airways | 0.3%n=6,420 · 95% CI 0.2 to 0.5% | 1.0%n=3,218 · 95% CI 0.7 to 1.4% | 2.9%n=1,975 · 95% CI 2.3 to 3.8% | 0.3%n=27,975 · 95% CI 0.2 to 0.4% | 0.5%n=10,194 · 95% CI 0.4 to 0.6% | 0.7%n=4,596 · 95% CI 0.5 to 1.0% | 1.0%n=2,108 · 95% CI 0.7 to 1.5% |
| Level | 0.3%n=4,394 · 95% CI 0.2 to 0.6% | 0.7%n=2,378 · 95% CI 0.4 to 1.1% | 3.2%n=1,391 · 95% CI 2.4 to 4.2% | 0.3%n=19,626 · 95% CI 0.2 to 0.4% | 0.5%n=6,453 · 95% CI 0.4 to 0.8% | 0.9%n=2,897 · 95% CI 0.6 to 1.3% | 1.3%n=1,251 · 95% CI 0.8 to 2.1% |
| Alaska | 0.5%n=5,781 · 95% CI 0.4 to 0.8% | 1.1%n=3,792 · 95% CI 0.8 to 1.4% | 3.0%n=2,275 · 95% CI 2.4 to 3.8% | 0.7%n=17,101 · 95% CI 0.6 to 0.9% | 1.1%n=5,984 · 95% CI 0.9 to 1.4% | 1.8%n=2,077 · 95% CI 1.3 to 2.4% | 2.1%n=861 · 95% CI 1.3 to 3.3% |
| British | 0.8%n=5,058 · 95% CI 0.6 to 1.1% | 1.5%n=2,778 · 95% CI 1.2 to 2.1% | 3.1%n=1,622 · 95% CI 2.4 to 4.1% | 0.6%n=16,666 · 95% CI 0.5 to 0.7% | 0.9%n=7,055 · 95% CI 0.7 to 1.1% | 1.0%n=3,588 · 95% CI 0.7 to 1.4% | 1.2%n=1,917 · 95% CI 0.8 to 1.8% |
| LATAM Airlines | 0.4%n=4,192 · 95% CI 0.2 to 0.6% | 0.7%n=2,019 · 95% CI 0.5 to 1.2% | 3.4%n=1,210 · 95% CI 2.5 to 4.6% | 0.4%n=15,640 · 95% CI 0.3 to 0.5% | 0.4%n=6,362 · 95% CI 0.3 to 0.6% | 0.7%n=2,917 · 95% CI 0.4 to 1.0% | 0.9%n=1,340 · 95% CI 0.5 to 1.6% |
| Air Europa | 0.1%n=3,470 · 95% CI 0.0 to 0.2% | 0.1%n=1,772 · 95% CI 0.0 to 0.3% | 0.2%n=863 · 95% CI 0.1 to 0.8% | 0.0%n=13,416 · 95% CI 0.0 to 0.1% | 0.0%n=5,103 · 95% CI 0.0 to 0.1% | 0.0%n=2,738 · 95% CI 0.0 to 0.2% | 0.1%n=1,518 · 95% CI 0.0 to 0.4% |
| Air Canada | 1.8%n=3,201 · 95% CI 1.4 to 2.4% | 3.0%n=2,636 · 95% CI 2.4 to 3.7% | 6.2%n=2,570 · 95% CI 5.3 to 7.2% | 2.2%n=12,863 · 95% CI 1.9 to 2.5% | 3.0%n=2,379 · 95% CI 2.4 to 3.7% | 3.0%n=696 · 95% CI 2.0 to 4.6% | 3.9%n=207 · 95% CI 2.0 to 7.4% |
Airline × hub × hour combinations are deliberately not published yet; current history would create misleadingly thin cells.
That is the historical picture. Right now we are counting 433 cancelled departures today across 222 airports whose boards publish cancellations — see which airports are cancelling flights today.
Journalists, bloggers, and researchers may cite this page with attribution and a link to Pro Flight Search.
Source: Pro Flight Search cancellation-risk curves, 2026-06-29 to 2026-09-04; resolved departure-board flights only, minimum published cell n=100.
https://proflightsearch.com/will-my-flight-be-cancelled/
How we measure
Honest denominators or nothing
- Only resolved flights count. A leg enters the math after it either cancelled or showed hard departure evidence. Still open delayed flights are excluded, and the newest two days are held back. Without this rule the risk would read falsely low.
- Publication gate at n = 100. Any cohort below 100 resolved flights keeps its sample visible and its rate suppressed. Airport curves never borrow the overall rate.
- Every number carries its n and a 95% Wilson interval. Dimensions are shown independently and never multiplied into a per flight prediction.
Method
What the number means
Does a flight count while it is still delayed?
No. A still-open flight is neither a cancellation nor a departure. It is excluded until the board records cancellation or terminal/actual departure evidence. This right-censoring rule prevents slow-to-resolve cancellations from being diluted by flights that departed first.
Do more posted-time pushes mean more cancellation risk?
Not much on their own in the current sample. The overall push curve is nearly flat, while cancellation probability rises as the posted delay enters larger minute buckets. That counterintuitive result is why the page leads with delay magnitude and keeps push count as separate context.
What counts as a push?
Every chronological change in the board's revised or estimated departure clock from the original scheduled time. A flight that reaches three pushes contributes once to the 1+, 2+, and 3+ points because a traveller at each of those states could have been watching it.
Are the airport, airline, and time results combined?
No. They are independent descriptive cohorts. Combining a hub, airline, hour, push count, and delay bucket would make cells too thin with the current history, so the calculator uses the first supported cohort and shows exactly which one it used. The selected-airport curve never substitutes an overall value for a thin airport bucket.
Keep planning around the delay: how much time planes make up in the air live weather delay risk by airport, and the global delay board.