Predictor

Flight delay risk by number

live

Type a flight number for its delay risk and the reasons behind it.

Find out if your flight might be late from our 172 million board records, 590k weather observations, and 327 airports.

Try

Open the flight's own page from the result for live board clocks.

What 172 million board updates taught us

327 airports tracked · 172 million board records · 590k weather observations

Board honesty +27 → +49
When the board first posts around +27, those flights finally leave around +49. Made up in the air ~29 min
Median time made up once airborne. 64% of late departures still arrive within 15 minutes. Weather × delay IFR ≈ 1.1×
Low visibility hours roughly raise delay odds at most hubs, measured per airport.

Latest predictions

55% within 15 min · ±57 min average error · 11 checked
FlightRoutePredictedActualWhen
PR116 MNL→YVR +33m +62m off 26d ago
CX724 KUL→HKG +17m +35m off 27d ago
BA472 LHR→BCN +6m +6m on target 29d ago
BA32 HKG→LHR on time +2m on target 37d ago
AA12 LAX→BOS on time +20m off 51d ago
AA123 DFW→OGG on time +505m off 51d ago
LO80 NRT→WAW on time on time on target 53d ago
AF99 IAH→CDG +23m +10m on target 53d ago
DL402 MSP→RSW +7m awaiting 53d ago
AA61 DFW→NRT +5m on time off 53d ago

Predicted is the delay we expected; actual is what the flight did. On target means within 15 minutes.

How it works

We take how this exact flight has actually run recently, add how its origin airport is doing today and the weather and knock-on delays around it, and show the likely delay with the reasons. Every prediction is saved and later checked against what the flight did, which is the accuracy you see above.

Common questions

How does it know if my flight will be late?

It looks at how this exact flight has actually run over its recent departures, how its origin airport is doing today, and the weather and knock-on delays around it, then shows the likely delay with the reasons behind it.

Is it free?

Yes, no signup. Enter a flight number and you get the delay risk straight away.

How accurate is it?

Every prediction is saved and checked against what the flight actually did. The recent hit rate and average error are shown in Latest predictions below, so you can judge it yourself.